Last night I had the chance to see Bill Gates Jr. interview his dad, Bill Gates Sr. at the 92nd St. Y. The talk was quite rambling, but three really interesting points were made.
Jr. was asked what he thought about Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000 hour rule: if you do something for 10,000 hours you'll be an expert. His response was quite nuanced.
He suggested that no one sets out to do something for 10,000 hours to become an expert. Rather, lots of people set out to do something and after 50 hours, 90% give up. After another 50 hours, another 90% give up, et cetera. As a result, the only people left after 10,000 hours are the fanatics - and the have the benefit of great pattern recognition as they've been through many cycles.
Another good question was around what is the biggest lever to improve health care systems. Jr. stated that there are actually two:
- Rising living standards. As people's income rises, they spend more on health care
- Childhood vaccinations. In 1960, 20M kids under 5 died per year; now we're down to 9M. The eradication of Smallpox alone reduced this by 3M. That's why he's funding a TB and malaria vaccine.
- One interesting addendum: he stated that when you increase vaccination rates and reduce childhood mortality, people start having fewer children as they know they'll be there to care for them in their old age. This was something I always wondered about: does increased childhood survival lead to a population bubble and a lower standard of living for a society? Bill's answer: no
Sr. closed with some wise words: remember that the only reason you're successful is because you're part of a huge, interconnected society. We often think that our success is due exclusively to our selves, but if our society wasn't so vastly networked, we'd never achieve success on such a scale. A great closing thought.