Best Metaphor Ever?

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Wendy is currently reading Bill Bryson‘s A Short History of Nearly Everything . From it comes the following passage, with possibly the best metaphor ever for the slow pace of geological time:

…If you imagine the 4.5 billion odd years of Earth’s history compressed into a normal earthly day, then life begins very early, about 4 a.m., with the rise of the first simple, single-celled organisms, but then advances no further for the next sixteen hours. Not until almost 8:30 in the evening, with the day five-sixth over, has Earth anything to show the universe but a restless skin of microbes. Then, finally, the first sea plants appear, followed twenty minutes later by the first jellyfish and the enigmatic Ediacaran fauna first seen by Reginald Sprigg in Australia. At 9:04 p.m. trilobites swim onto the scene, followed more or less immediately by the shapely creatures of the Burgess Shale. Just before 10 p.m. plants begin to pop up on the land. Soon after, with less than two hours left in the day, the first land creatures follow.

Thanks to ten minutes or so of balmy weather, by 10:24 the Earth is covered in the great carboniferous forests whose residues give us all our coal, and the first winged insects are evident. Dinosaurs plod onto the scene just before 11 p.m. and hold sway for about three-quarters of an hour. At twenty-one minutes to midnight they vanish and the age of mammals begins. Humans emerge one minute and seventeen seconds before midnight. The whole of our recorded history, on this scale, would be no more than a few seconds, a single human lifetime barely an instant. Throughoutt this greatly speeded-up day continents slide about and bang together at a clip that seems positively reckless. Mountains rise and melt away, ocean basins come and go, ice sheets advance and withdraw. And throughout the whole, about three times every minutes, somewhere on the planet this a flashbulb pop of light marking the impact of a Manson-sized meteor or one even larger. It’s a wonder that anything at all can survive in such a pummelled and unsettled environment. In fact, not many things do for long.

Out With 2010 And In With 2011

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So.

It’s 2011.

Being lazy and using that as an excuse to pretend I’m bucking a trend, I’m going to take this first day of the new year to reflect on the year gone by and look forward.

1.

Let’s start with some not quite arbitrarily chosen numbers for last year.

90 blog posts

318 tweets

5,260 photos kept (and I delete about 2 photos for every one I keep)

66 Kindle books (can’t say I read them all)

12 countries

48 cities

38 people followed on Twitter

99 blog subscriptions (OPML if you know what that means)

2.

Travel was the biggest theme for 2010 as the numbers above attest. The year started in the snow of Whistler mountain and spring saw trips to Montreal and D.C.

Then, for a variety of reasons, we decided to leave NYC and the real travel began. Our first foray was upcountry to Yale/New Haven to sell Wendy’s car and then Toronto/Algonquin for a wedding.

The success of this led us on our world tour which has been been heavily documented.

3.

The numbers above illustrate a few more themes in my life:

  • Digital narcissism. If, in the future, an anthropologist tries to understand my life, the period from about age 27 onward will be extremely well documented. Without realizing it, I’m leaving breadcrumbs to my personality-opinions, experiences, thoughts, musings-all across the web on an increasingly rapid basis. Perhaps in a few years time someone will write a computer program that will simulate my thoughts so well that it will be able to pass the Turing Test (however, I suspect this is highly unlikely)
  • Attention is the biggest constraint in my digital life. It’s amazing that I can get the opinions and thoughts of over 100 people and organizations on a daily basis but I don’t have the right set of tools to digest it all. There are great tools for streaming it to me, but there is a distinct lack of tools to help me make sense of it all and coalesce the views and opinions of all these people. I need something that helps me filter their opinions for what I’m most interested in and then pulls out the main themes. Maybe this will finally arrive in 2011.
  • Storage is the second biggest constraint in my digital life. When I was a kid we had a 20 Mb hard drive on our Mac Plus and I remember that it was hard to fill up. I just filled up my 250 GB hard drive. Where did all this come from? The 15,000 photos I’ve taken (1/3 in the last year), the 7,459 songs in my iTunes and the increasing number of digital books I’m reading. The easy solution would be to transfer all of this to the cloud. And I’ll probably have to unless I can keep doubling the size of my hard drive every three years (which could be possible). But I’m not sure I’m ready to trust the cloud with every last detail of my life. (And yes, there’s an irony that I’m saying this in a blog post)

4.

Here are some things that I enjoyed in 2010:

5.

It took a while, but I found my resolutions from last year.

It’s a mixed bag of results: since we ended up leaving NYC and traveling, a lot of them – like cook more, meet more people in the neighbourhood, learn how to program an Arduino, take a class at 3rd Ward, etc. – became moot.

I did learn how to be a better Django programmer and created a very early prototype of some location-based software (more will be coming this year!). I also wanted to expose myself to a lot of new ideas; the twitter and blog feeds above did that.

I utterly failed in my efforts to redo this website, dress better at work or do a better job of staying in touch with my friends (damnit, why don’t you all read this blog and get on twitter?).

6.

So, what will 2011 bring? This year I’m limiting myself to four resolutions:

  • Launch my own company. This one’s going to happen. More details to follow
  • Meet a lot of interesting people in Vancouver. New year, new city, new set of friends. I’ve lived mainly in cities like Toronto and NYC where the fun comes to you. Vancouver is going to be different: I’m going to have to seek out similar-minded people. I’m thinking a lot of yoga, rock climbing, trail running, hackspacing and tech meetups to try and meet interesting folks.
  • Run a 3:10 marathon. I really want to qualify for Boston and, while it’s a step change in improvement from my personal best, I’m going to give it a try. I also lost 15 pounds traveling, so I feel like this could be the year
  • Do less, better. Life is too interesting and there’s too much to do. So I’m going to try and do fewer things with more focus. I don’t know how this will play out, but we’ll see.

And with that, happy new year!

On Poetry

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Over Christmas I had the chance to grab coffee with my most literary of friends and we got to talking poetry. Specifically, my lack of knowledge about it due to a high school curriculum that consisted almost entirely of Shakespeare’s poorer plays and witless rhyming couplets.

I said that I’m willing to give it a second chance, but that I had absolutely no idea where to begin. This led to a slew of recommendations that I’ve decided to share with the interpipes community.

So here, without further ado, is a selection of recommended poems. Before sharing them though, a note on how to read them. JB recommends the following three rules to get the most out of each poem:

  1. Read them out loud
  2. Read slowly
  3. Follow the punctuation, not the line breaks. If there’s a line break, don’t stop: keep going until the next comma or period

Here are the poems:

Philip Larkin

High Windows

When I see a couple of kids

And guess he’s fucking her and she’s

Taking pills or wearing a diaphragm,

I know this is paradise

Break

Everyone old has dreamed of all their lives–

Bonds and gestures pushed to one side

Like an outdated combine harvester,

And everyone young going down the long slide

Break

To happiness, endlessly. I wonder if

Anyone looked at me, forty years back,

And thought, That’ll be the life;

No God any more, or sweating in the dark

Break

About hell and that, or having to hide

What you think of the priest. He

And his lot will all go down the long slide

Like free bloody birds. And immediately

Break

Rather than words comes the thought of high windows:

The sun-comprehending glass,

And beyond it, the deep blue air, that shows

Nothing, and is nowhere, and is endless.

Source

Sad Steps

Groping back to bed after a piss

I part thick curtains, and am startled by

The rapid clouds, the moon’s cleanliness.

Break

Four o’clock: wedge-shadowed gardens lie

Under a cavernous, a wind-picked sky.

There’s something laughable about this,

Break

The way the moon dashes through clouds that blow

Loosely as cannon-smoke to stand apart

(Stone-coloured light sharpening the roofs below)

Break

High and preposterous and separate -

Lozenge of love! Medallion of art!

O wolves of memory! Immensements! No,

Break

One shivers slightly, looking up there.

The hardness and the brightness and the plain

Far-reaching singleness of that wide stare

Break

Is a reminder of the strength and pain

Of being young; that it can’t come again,

But is for others undiminished somewhere.

Source

Toads

Why should I let the toad work

  Squat on my life?

Can’t I use my wit as a pitchfork

  And drive the brute off?

Break

Six days of the week it soils

  With its sickening poison -

Just for paying a few bills!

  That’s out of proportion.

Break

Lots of folk live on their wits:

  Lecturers, lispers,

Losels, loblolly-men, louts-

  They don’t end as paupers;

Break

Lots of folk live up lanes

  With fires in a bucket,

Eat windfalls and tinned sardines-

  they seem to like it.

Break

Their nippers have got bare feet,

  Their unspeakable wives

Are skinny as whippets – and yet

  No one actually starves.

Break

Ah, were I courageous enough

  To shout Stuff your pension!

But I know, all too well, that’s the stuff

  That dreams are made on:

Break

For something sufficiently toad-like

  Squats in me, too;

Its hunkers are heavy as hard luck,

  And cold as snow,

Break

And will never allow me to blarney

  My way of getting

The fame and the girl and the money

  All at one sitting.

Break

I don’t say, one bodies the other

  One’s spiritual truth;

But I do say it’s hard to lose either,

  When you have both.

Break

Source

Annus Mirabilis

Sexual intercourse began

In nineteen sixty-three

(which was rather late for me) -

Between the end of the Chatterley ban

And the Beatles’ first LP.

Break

Up to then there’d only been

A sort of bargaining,

A wrangle for the ring,

A shame that started at sixteen

And spread to everything.

Break

Then all at once the quarrel sank:

Everyone felt the same,

And every life became

A brilliant breaking of the bank,

A quite unlosable game.

Break

So life was never better than

In nineteen sixty-three

(Though just too late for me) -

Between the end of the Chatterley ban

And the Beatles’ first LP.

Source

Edna St-Vincent Millay

I Shall Forget You Presently, My Dear

I shall forget you presently, my dear,

So make the most of this, your little day,

Your little month, your little half a year,

Ere I forget, or die, or move away,

And we are done forever; by and by

I shall forget you, as I said, but now,

If you entreat me with your loveliest lie

I will protest you with my favorite vow.

Break

I would indeed that love were longer-lived,

And oaths were not so brittle as they are,

But so it is, and nature has contrived

To struggle on without a break thus far,—

Whether or not we find what we are seeking

Is idle, biologically speaking.

Source

Intention To Escape From Him

I think I will learn some beautiful language, useless for commercial

Purposes, work hard at that.

I think I will learn the Latin name of every songbird, not only in

America but wherever they sing.

(Shun meditation, though; invite the controversial:

Is the world flat? Do bats eat cats?) By digging hard I might

deflect that river, my mind, that uncontrollable thing,

Turgid and yellow, srong to overflow its banks in spring,

carrying away bridges

A bed of pebbles now, through which there trickles one clear

narrow stream, following a course henceforth nefast—

Break

Dig, dig; and if I come to ledges, blast.

Source

Leonard Cohen

What I’m doing here

I do not know if the world has lied

I have lied

I do not know if the world has conspired against love

I have conspired against love

The atmosphere of torture is no comfort

I have tortured

Even without the mushroom cloud

still I would have hated

Listen

I would have done the same things

even if there were no death

I will not be held like a drunkard

under the cold tap of facts

I refuse the universal alibi

Break

Like an empty telephone booth passed at night

and remembered

like mirrors in a movie palace lobby consulted

only on the way out

like a nymphomaniac who binds a thousand

into strange brotherhood

I wait

for each one of you to confess

Source

E.E. Cummings

Look at this

look at this)

a 75 done

this nobody would

have believed

would they no

kidding this was my particular

Break

pal

funny aint

it we was

buddies

i used to

Break

know

him lift the

poor cuss

tenderly this side up handle

Break

with care

fragile

and send him home

Break

to his old mother in

a new nice pine box

Break

(collect

Source

Kitty, Sixteen, 5’11″, White, Prostitute

“kitty”. sixteen, 5′ 11″, white, prostitute.

Break

ducking always the touch of must and shall,

whose slippery body is Death’s littlest pal,

Break

Break

skilled in quick softness. Unspontaneous. cute.

Break

Break

the signal perfume of whose unrepute

focusses in the sweet slow animal

bottomless eyes importantly banal,

Break

Break

Kitty. a whore. Sixteen

                                       you corking brute

amused from time to time by clever drolls

fearsomely who do keep their sunday flower.

The babybreasted broad “kitty” twice eight

Break

Break

–beer nothing, the lady’ll have a whiskey-sour–

Break

Break

whose least amazing smile is the most great

common divisor of unequal souls.

Source

Elizabeth Bishop

Filling Station

Oh, but it is dirty!

–this little filling station,

oil-soaked, oil-permeated

to a disturbing, over-all

black translucency.

Be careful with that match!

Break

Father wears a dirty,

oil-soaked monkey suit

that cuts him under the arms,

and several quick and saucy

and greasy sons assist him

(it’s a family filling station),

all quite thoroughly dirty.

Break

Do they live in the station?

It has a cement porch

behind the pumps, and on it

a set of crushed and grease-

impregnated wickerwork;

on the wicker sofa

a dirty dog, quite comfy.

Break

Some comic books provide

the only note of color–

of certain color. They lie

upon a big dim doily

draping a taboret

(part of the set), beside

a big hirsute begonia.

Break

Why the extraneous plant?

Why the taboret?

Why, oh why, the doily?

(Embroidered in daisy stitch

with marguerites, I think,

and heavy with gray crochet.)

Break

Somebody embroidered the doily.

Somebody waters the plant,

or oils it, maybe. Somebody

arranges the rows of cans

so that they softly say:

ESSO–SO–SO–SO

Break

to high-strung automobiles.

Somebody loves us all.

Source

Thomas Hardy

In The Cemetery

“You see those mothers squabbling there?”

Remarks the man of the cemetery.

“One says in tears, ”Tis mine lies here!’

Another, ‘Nay, mine, you Pharisee!’

Another, ‘How dare you move my flowers

And put your own on this grave of ours!’

But all their children were laid therein

At different times, like sprats in a tin.

“And then the main drain had to cross,

And we moved the lot some nights ago,

And packed them away in the general foss

With hundreds more. But their folks don’t know,

And as well cry over a new-laid drain

As anything else, to ease your pain!”

Source

Margaret Atwood

This Is A Photograph Of Me

It was taken some time ago

At first it seems to be

a smeared

print: blurred lines and grey flecks

blended with the paper;

Break

then, as you scan

it, you can see something in the left-hand corner

a thing that is like a branch: part of a tree

(balsam or spruce) emerging

and, to the right, halfway up

what ought to be a gentle

slope, a small frame house.

Break

In the background there is a lake,

and beyond that, some low hills.

Break

(The photograph was taken

the day after I drowned.

Break

I am in the lake, in the center

of the picture, just under the surface.

Break

It is difficult to say where

precisely, or to say

how large or how small I am:

the effect of water

on light is a distortion.

Break

but if you look long enough

eventually

you will see me.)

Source

P.K. Page

Deaf-Mute In A Pear Tree

His clumsy body is a golden fruit

pendulous in the pear tree

Break

Blunt fingers among the multitudinous buds

Break

Adriatic blue the sky above and through

the forking twigs

Break

Sun ruddying tree’s trunk, his trunk

his massive head thick-knobbed with burnished curls

tight-clenched in bud

Break

(Painting by Generalic. Primitive.)

Break

I watch him prune with silent secateurs

Break

Boots in the crotch of branches shift their weight

heavily as oxen in a stall

Break

Hear small inarticulate mews from his locked mouth

a kitten in a box

Break

Pear clippings fall

                   soundlessly on the ground

Spring finches sing

                   soundlessly in the leaves

Break

Break

A stone. A stone in ears and on his tongue

Break

Through palm and fingertip he knows the tree’s

quick springtime pulse

Break

Smells in its sap the sweet incipient pears

Break

Pale sunlight’s choppy water glistens on

his mutely snipping blades

Break

and flags and scraps of blue

above him make regatta of the day

Break

But when he sees his wife’s foreshortened shape

sudden and silent in the grass below

uptilt its face to him

Break

then air is kisses, kisses

Break

stone dissolves

Break

his locked throat finds a little door

Break

and through it feathered joy

flies screaming like a jay

Source

Charles Bukowski

History Of A Tough Motherfucker

he came to the door one night wet thin beaten and

terrorized

a white cross-eyed tailless cat

I took him in and fed him and he stayed

grew to trust me until a friend drove up the driveway

and ran him over

I took what was left to a vet who said,”not much

chance…give him these pills…his backbone

is crushed, but is was crushed before and somehow

mended, if he lives he’ll never walk, look at

these x-rays, he’s been shot, look here, the pellets

are still there…also, he once had a tail, somebody

cut it off…”

I took the cat back, it was a hot summer, one of the

hottest in decades, I put him on the bathroom

floor, gave him water and pills, he wouldn’t eat, he

wouldn’t touch the water, I dipped my finger into it

and wet his mouth and I talked to him, I didn’t go any-

where, I put in a lot of bathroom time and talked to

him and gently touched him and he looked back at

me with those pale blue crossed eyes and as the days went

by he made his first move

dragging himself forward by his front legs

(the rear ones wouldn’t work)

he made it to the litter box

crawled over and in,

it was like the trumpet of possible victory

blowing in that bathroom and into the city, I

related to that cat-I’d had it bad, not that

bad but bad enough

one morning he got up, stood up, fell back down and

just looked at me.

“you can make it,” I said to him.

he kept trying, getting up falling down, finally

he walked a few steps, he was like a drunk, the

rear legs just didn’t want to do it and he fell again, rested,

then got up.

you know the rest: now he’s better than ever, cross-eyed

almost toothless, but the grace is back, and that look in

his eyes never left…

and now sometimes I’m interviewed, they want to hear about

life and literature and I get drunk and hold up my cross-eyed,

shot, runover de-tailed cat and I say,”look, look

at this!”

but they don’t understand, they say something like,”you

say you’ve been influenced by Celine?”

“no,” I hold the cat up,”by what happens, by

things like this, by this, by this!”

I shake the cat, hold him up in

the smoky and drunken light, he’s relaxed he knows…

it’s then that the interviews end

although I am proud sometimes when I see the pictures

later and there I am and there is the cat and we are photo-

graphed together.

he too knows it’s bullshit but that somehow it all helps.

Source

Update: my second most literate friend has sent me another great poem that needs to be added to this post:

Thomas Kinsella

Mirror in February

The day dawns, with scent of must and rain,

Of opened soil, dark trees, dry bedroom air.

Under the fading lamp, half dressed — my brain

Idling on some compulsive fantasy –

I towel my shaven jaw and stop, and stare,

Riveted by a dark exhausted eye,

A dry downturning mouth.

Break

It seems again that it is time to learn,

In this untiring, crumbling place of growth

To which, for the time being, I return.

Now plainly in the mirror of my soul

I read that I have looked my last on youth

And little more; for they are not made whole

That reach the age of Christ.

Break

Below my window the wakening trees,

Hacked clean for better bearing, stand defaced

Suffering their brute necessities;

And how should the flesh not quail, that span for span

Is mutilated more? In slow distaste

I fold my towel with what grace I can,


Not young, and not renewable, but man.

Source

What Are The Odds This Is True?

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So here’s a thought for you.

According to a recent visit to the German History Museum, at its apogee, the Roman army had 400-500 thousand troops to protect the empire’s 50-60 million inhabitants.

Today, the United States military has ~1.5 million active duty personnel and a similar number of reservists (source) to protect its roughly 300 million strong population.

Interestingly, this is roughly the same ratio of 1 soldier per 100 citizens. This is only two data points and does not a trend make, but I wonder if there’s some sort of permanent ratio that is simply the cost of being the world’s policeman – and it’s independent of technology/politics/history/etc.

Getting Ready for India

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Wen and I were originally going to visit Nepal and then India but due to poor weather in Nepal (and poorer planning on our part), we’re only going to India for a now massive five weeks.

I love India, having been there twice in 2006. While the second trip was purely a vacation, the first one was a visit to a technology conference and highlighted their seemingly inexorable rise to a leading power in the 21st century.

In preparation for this trip, I’ve been doing a bit of reading on the country. If you want to get a sense of just what India’s rise could mean and a sense of the staggering challenges they’re going to face to realize their full potential, I highly recommend In Spite of the Gods: The Rise of Modern India by Edward Luce. They book is about four years old now and it’s remarkable how prescient many of his predictions/comments have been.

As a tease, here are a couple of gems from the book.

On the organization of India’s economy:

Less than 10 percent of India’s dauntingly large labor force is employed in the formal economy [i.e., not farming], which Indians call the “organized sector.” That means that fewer than 40 million people, out of a total of 470 million workers, have job security in any meaningful sense. It means that only 35 million Indians pay any kind of income tax.

Of the roughly 35 million Indians with formal sector jobs … 21 million are direct employees of the government. These are the civil servants, the teachers, the postal workers, the tea makers and sweepers, the oil sector workers, the soldiers, the coal miners, and the ticket collectors of the Indian government’s lumbering network of offices, railways stations, factories, and schools.

Fewer than 1 million – that is, less than a quarter of 1 percent of India’s total pool of labor – are employed in information technology, software, back-office processing and call centers.

I found this fascinating. Despite all the wealth created by India’s massive software companies it’s a drop in the bucket in terms of employment. Moreover, there are only 7 million people employed in manufacturing in India vs. more than 100 million in China. It will be interesting to see if India can turn themselves into a private sector job machine.

Another theme in the book is how the political process is breaking down as people elect people from their caste to ensure more public sector jobs for their caste members (as you literally cannot fire a public sector worker even if they do no work). This is compounded by reputed criminals seeking election as a way of making themselves legally untouchable. The net result is widespread corruption in both the political and bureaucratic sector.

Here’s a snippet of one revealing interview with a politician:

A few months after election I visited Reddy in his office at the state secretariat in Hyderabad. I asked him what he was doing to provide irrigation to the poor farmers. A large man with an equally large mustache, Reddy was every inch the local satrap. The rooms and corridors outside his office resembled a bustling railway station with dozens of local supplicants awaiting the chance to ask a favor of their chief minister. “Every detail is being taken care of,” he replied to my question. And what are the details? I asked. “Everything is possible,” he said. What was possible? “Every little detail.” Can you provide me with some? “In time, we will fix everything,” he said. And so on. At one stage during this singularly uninformative interview, Reddy started scrambling around for a bit of paper. His secretary handed him something. “Yes,” he said, reading it. “Sir Arthur Cotton built lots of irrigation for the farmers in this area. He was British. You are British.” But what are you doing? “We are doing everything possible to ensure irrigation gets to the farmers.”

The book is full of examples like this – and, in fairness, also inspiring interviews with some remarkable officials who are building a great future for Indians (check out the section on New Delhi’s now-former mayor).

Two other interesting areas that the book explores: gender discrimination and the spending habits of New India.

Here are some stats on gender discrimination:

In large tracts of northern and western India, the so-called “gender gap” between boys and girls has sharply increased. The average ratio of births of girls to boys for India was 945 to 1,000 in 1991. By 2001 it had fallen to 927. … Gujarat has fewer than 900 girls to 1,000 boys. Punjab has below 800.

Put another way, over time, 3-4% of the Indian population may never be able to marry because there simply won’t be enough girls to marry. Given India’s size this will mean millions of sex-starved men. Moreover, the traditional solutions to this problem never really worked and are already fading. China’s got this problem too; India’s going to have to learn from it.

The spending habits are interesting as India is its own juggernaut and is going to have to decide what values it wants to promote. Will it adopt Western consumerism or create something uniquely Indian?

Alok [a successful entrepreneur] said his employees, most of whom are dressed such that they would blend in with their counterparts in San Francisco, never talk about money in cash terms. The measure their pay in EMIs, or equal monthly installments. These are monthly deductions from your bank account that continue for years, enabling you to pay off the car, motorbike, microwave, freezer, air-conditioning units, and flats you have not earned. You can even take an EMI holiday. … “Saving is the last thing on these guys’ [his employess] minds,” Alok said.

We’ve seen how this movie ends.

I can’t wait to go back to India. I recommend that everyone go there as it’s fascinating – and read In Spite of the Gods before you go to have a better sense of what is happening behind the scenes.

Geography is Destiny

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When we visited Laos, I couldn’t help but wonder if it was so (relatively) poor due to its status as a landlocked country.

So I put together the following graphs comparing PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita (IMF or CIA number if IMF not available) for all countries that are not islands (my hypothesis is that they develop differently than continental countries-different political/environmental pressures, etc.) and at least 1,000 sq kilometer in size. I’ve coloured the graphs based on whether the countries are landlocked or not. I’ve skipped North America as there are no landlocked countries.

The results are pretty clear; on average, you’re worse off economically if you’re from a landlocked country.

Africa

5 of the 10 poorest countries are landlocked; 11 of the poorest 20. Only 1 of the richest 10 and 2 of the richest 20 are landlocked.

201009022251.jpg

Asia & Middle East
5 of the 10 poorest and none of the 10 richest.

201009022252.jpg

Europe

The most even of the bunch. Only 3 of the 10 poorest and 3 of the 10 richest. However, you could argue that Austria wasn’t landlocked for most of its existence (due to the Holy Roman Empire) and than Luxembourg is a statistical outlier due to its small size.

201009022253.jpg

South America

It’s left as an exercise to the reader to interpret the chart below.

201009022253.jpg

Notes on Japan

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This country never ceases to fascinate. I’ve noticed many things on this trip; many too short to blog, so instead, here’s a stream of consciousness.

1.

This country is obsessed with order, ritual and precision. Everyone wears a uniform. Security guards and cleaning staff are decked out head-to-toe in custom uniforms. The salarymen all wear variations on the same suit. Even the teenagers here all seem to collapse into the same look.

This also manifests itself in odd ways. For instance, the construction sites here are the cleanest things you have ever seen. Note the equally spaced barriers ringing the sites:

Well organized construction site

Similarly, I watched a security guard at another construction site walking around picking up individual cigarette butts with tongs; no broom for him.

Equally baffling is the habit of staff on trains to bow as they enter and exit each car. The process of selling you coffee or checking your tickets involves endless rounds of bowing.

2.

This country is incredibly safe and crime free.

You see almost no graffiti. There are no guards in the museums (versus one per room in most North American museums). There are fire extinguishers everywhere on the smaller streets (would have been stolen ages ago in Canada). They even print your room number on the key to your hotel room:

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3.

When it rains in Shinjuku at night you are forgiven for thinking that, just for one second, you might actually be in Blade Runner .

4.

The toilets here are out of control. Not only do they have bidets and a spray built in, some also make a flushing sound on demand, enabling you to avoid some of the less delicate human noises. Many have warming seats.

Also, one toilet I used actually robotically controlled its lid. I flushed it (lid up) and it closed the lid and then raised it again before flushing it. I’ve no idea why, but, I for one, will work with our future robot toilet overlords.

5.

The Tokyo metro is an experience in and of itself.

No one talks and it is almost preternaturally quiet. People may be listening to music on their headphones, but they keep the volume so low that you can’t hear.

Many people sleep. Others read. Sometimes they read manga porn. That’s okay and no one judges (or, if they do, they’re doing it in their own silent Japanese way). Here’s a photo of a guy reading his manga porn next to a sleeping woman:

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The service is also impeccable. We were in the train when a guard ran on and picked someone’s suit jacket off the rack above the seats (yes, they have racks). He asked anyone if it was theirs; upon hearing ‘no’, he ran off the train and began speaking frantically into his walkie talkie.

Seemed like someone had mentioned that they’d forgot their jacket on the train and mere minutes later it was being picked up for them. MTA, you’ve got a long way to go.

6.

There are no garbage cans anywhere. You’re supposed to bring your own trash home – even if you’re at the park. You can find some garbage cans next to vending machines or in convenience stores, but that’s it.

7.

You can eat at any restaurant in Japan and you know the food will be clean. A chef would be permanently dishonoured if one of his guests got sick from his food.

Despite that, just about every restaurant we’ve eaten at would fail a health inspection in North America.

The kitchens are crowded nasty affairs. In a noodle bar, raw food sits in bowls astride the patrons waiting to be cooked. Cigarette smoke ventilates into the kitchen. There’s only one sink in the kitchen and it’s used for everything. And none of that matters.

8.

The alien nature of Japan is hammered home to you most notably when you experience something Western that’s been redone through a Japanese lens. I went into Fedex Kinko’s to print some paper and all was normal until they handed me my printed documents.

In an envelope that was sealed with a special Kinko’s sticker:

Fedex Kinko's Bag

I had a similar moment when I saw an ad for Coke Zero:

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I’m pretty sure that you will never see Coke Zero positioned as “wild health” in North America (or that anyone would want to see that).

9.

There is more unnecessary packaging here than anywhere else I have ever been. Everything is double wrapped in plastic.

10.

We went in to a supermarket. In an effort to sell different foods, they were sampling salad. Nobody here eats Western food.

11.

People in Tokyo are immaculately put together. There is nary a loose end or a frayed cuff in sight. Even their jeans are perfect: I didn’t see one single rear pant leg that had ever come into contact with pavement.

12.

There is an obsession with labour-saving devices here. If you lived on a tiny island with an aging population, you’d probably think that same way too. The most bizarre example of this so far is a machine that automatically puts plastic sheets over your wet umbrella. I didn’t even know I needed it (see unnecessary packaging above).

13.

We were walking through Ginza (Tokyo’s fashionable shopping district) and drifted past an Abercrombie & Fitch store. For those who haven’t seen one, they represent the pinnacle of confused adolescent hormones run mad.

When we were in NYC, the Fifth Avenue flagship shop had a queue outside and inside it was all black with pounding music – meant to mimic a nightclub. The entrance was framed by a huge shirtless black & white photo of a perfect American youth with chiseled abs. Guarding the entrance were two equally good looking all-Americans wearing A&F’s traditional jeans-and-plaid outfits.

They’ve got exactly the same setup in Tokyo. Same queue. Same poorly lit shop with bad music. Same photo of American Boy ™. Even the clothes on the ‘bouncers’ are the same.

Except they’re Japanese and waif thing, making the whole thing even more ridiculous.

14.

Napkins are the garbage cans of restaurants; they are nowhere to be seen. In fact, I have yet to see a Japanese person spill anything while eating. It’s no that they’re perfect at eating, it’s that if you held your bowl to your face and slurped noodles from an inch away you’d be hard pressed to spill too.

15.

There are maps all around Tokyo. North is usually down. It’s hard enough to find your way around Tokyo (what with the medieval layout and non-Latin script), but holding your map upside down to orient yourself with the “you are here” pin on the sign is just punishing (and probably quite amusing for the locals).

16.

Many utility trucks (e.g., the phone company’s service trucks) drive around and broadcast messages continuously from a speaker mounted on the truck. I have no idea what they’re saying, but I’d like to imagine that it’s something like “Remember that the Emperor’s greatest virtue is his filial piety. All Japanese youth should…”

17.

Many Japanese restaurants display plastic replicas of their meals outside their doors:

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And it’s not just the main course; dessert too:

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I want to bring this tradition to my apartment in North America. When I have guests over for a dinner party, I will prepare a tray of plastic dishes. I’ll walk from guest to guest, showing them the tray and bowing in front of them as they acknowledge the presence of the plastic trinkets.

18.

We went out for dinner at a traditional izakaya (think Japanese pub; lots of wood and sake bottles everywhere). It could have been a scene from 500 years ago, until a couple sat down next to us and whipped out their iPad and cellphone. He placed the iPad in front of him and surfed the web for the entire meal. She did the same on her cellphone.

I think they exchanged maybe thirty words, and even then it was only to show each other stupid things they’d found on the Internet.

Oh to be young and in love in Japan…

19.

This country loves manga. We went to the manga museum (more a library than a museum…) and learned a bit more about it.

IMG_0012.JPG

Did you know that in 2008, the Japanese spent roughly as much on manga as fast food? That’s a serious commitment to Shonen Jump.

Here are some interesting milestones:

  • 1917: first domestic animation
  • 1932: Norakuro (also called Narkuro Jotohei) is published by Tagawa Suiho
  • 1947-1955: akahon (little red book) pulp fiction boom in Japan. Coincides with rise of book rental stores
  • 1963: creation of Astro Boy by Osamu Tezuka
  • 1960s/70s: Fujio Akatsuka pushes the boundaries of what can be in a manga. Introduces many new graphic styles
  • 1973: first anime classes at Kyoto University
  • 1983: word otaku is defined

The museum inadvertently betrayed a bit about Japanese culture:

  • A section describes the varying thickness of mangas in different areas of Japan. They state “the thickness of the books is not unrelated to the reading speeds of readers from each national region“. It’s very competitive here.
  • There’s a section on fanzines (fans creating their own manga based on popular characters) and the section on fanzines aimed at adults is basically porn. However, the museum shows one group aimed at men (two girls on the cover) and one aimed at women (two guys holding each other on the cover). Come on Japan, I’m pretty sure that women do not want to read about guys making out. It’s for gay people. You should feel comfortable saying that (which, the Japanese are not – I haven’t seen one openly gay person yet).

Another great point learned: manga is not all about samurai, spies or intergalactic travel. Most in painstakingly mundane stuff like tennis or seeing a girl on the subway.

20.

When you arrive in Japan nothing makes sense. When you leave, it all retrospectively makes total sense. It’s because Japan is a cultural and technological Galapagos. They’ve literally created everything themselves and it’s totally obvious to them how it works and they can’t understand why anyone would (or would want to do anything differently).

For example, consider the machine below:

IMG_0006.JPG

It’s the ticket machine for the subway. It looks bafflingly complex – and it is the first time you use it.

The trick is that you need to put your money in first before it will do anything. This is the complete opposite of how it works everywhere else in the world, so non-Japanese spend most of their time quivering in front of the machine.

Once you put your money in, the black buttons light up to show you which fairs you can choose based on the money inserted. Want more than one ticket? Select the number at the upper right and the black buttons refresh to show you any changes as to what you can pick.

All completely unintelligible to a non-Japanese but retrospectively makes a lot of sense.

21.

Male vanity is everywhere in this country. In Harujuku you’ll see lots of guys lined up for store sales. On the train we saw a guy putting on makeup. In fact, there was even a line of makeup aimed at men. It’s hilarious to see; what would the shogun of yore think!

22.

How much of a premium is space in this super-dense country? Check out these seats at the Mickey D’s in the Kyoto train station:

McDonald's Booths

23.

This country has a real sweet tooth and some of the absolute best candies. I recommend any of the following:

  • Crunky: think puffed rice in chocolate, not southern hip hop
  • Lotte Chocolat (sic) Dessert: science has managed to recreate the taste and texture of a chocolate banana crepe inside a tiny marble-sized ball of chocolate
  • Plus Mint Chocolate: heavy chocolate wrapped in a minty shell
  • Muji Yogurt-Covered Cherries: simple compared to these other foods, but they do the trick

Bill on Bill

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Last night I had the chance to see Bill Gates Jr. interview his dad, Bill Gates Sr. at the 92nd St. Y. The talk was quite rambling, but three really interesting points were made.

Jr. was asked what he thought about Malcolm Gladwell‘s 10,000 hour rule: if you do something for 10,000 hours you’ll be an expert.  His response was quite nuanced.

He suggested that no one sets out to do something for 10,000 hours to become an expert. Rather, lots of people set out to do something and after 50 hours, 90% give up. After another 50 hours, another 90% give up, et cetera. As a result, the only people left after 10,000 hours are the fanatics – and the have the benefit of great pattern recognition as they’ve been through many cycles.

Another good question was around what is the biggest lever to improve health care systems. Jr. stated that there are actually two:

  • Rising living standards. As people’s income rises, they spend more on health care
  • Childhood vaccinations. In 1960, 20M kids under 5 died per year; now we’re down to 9M. The eradication of Smallpox alone reduced this by 3M. That’s why he’s funding a TB and malaria vaccine.
    • One interesting addendum: he stated that when you increase vaccination rates and reduce childhood mortality, people start having fewer children as they know they’ll be there to care for them in their old age. This was something I always wondered about: does increased childhood survival lead to a population bubble and a lower standard of living for a society? Bill’s answer: no

Sr. closed with some wise words: remember that the only reason you’re successful is because you’re part of a huge, interconnected society. We often think that our success is due exclusively to our selves, but if our society wasn’t so vastly networked, we’d never achieve success on such a scale. A great closing thought.

Finally, A Great 21st Century Hip Hop Song

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I love hip hop. Actually, let me qualify that – I like hip hop that tells a story, preferably with a heavy slice of social commentary. The best hip hop songs let us into a world that we otherwise would never see or provide some social commentary that let us see society in a different way.

In the 70s, 80s and 90s, these sort of songs abounded: The Message. Fight The Power.  C.R.E.A.M. It Was A Good Day. And one of the best written and most ambitious concepts ever: Nas’ One Love.

Unfortunately, in the mid-90′s, hip hop became really commercially successful and instead we got mindless drivel like It’s All About The Benjamins and more recently Roll Call. These songs might get people on the dance floor, but you won’t be listening to them five years after they’re written.

In fact, the only song with any soul that might have come out this century was probably Hate It Or Love It.  What’s more, is I’ve found myself wondering how we could have just gone through the worst economic crisis in generations and there hasn’t been one hip hopper who’s written a song about it. After all, this was originally protest music, and there’s a lot to protest these days!

Thankfully, there’s finally a hip hop song that captures all the confusion of these past few years. Unfortunately, the original version is almost unlistenable – despite it’s great lyrics – but a few weeks ago it was repackaged in a fantastic form.

What song am I talking about? Dizzee Rascal’s Dirtee Cash performed as a mash-up with Florence + The Machine’s You’ve Got The Love at the 2010 Brit Awards:

The lyrics to this song are awesome. Dizzee spits them so fast that you might not notice them at first, so give them a read here – especially verse 3 – and reflect on why no one else is singing about this today:

[Dizzee Rascal]
Let’s go
Everybody wants to be famous,
Nobody wants to be nameless, aimless,
People act shameless
Tryna live like entertainers,
Want a fat crib with the acres,
So they spend money that they ain’t made yet,
Got a Benz on tik that they ain’t paid yet,
Spend their pay cheque
In the West End on the weekend
Got no money by the end of the weekend.
But they don’t care cause their life is a movie,
Starring Louis V, paid for by yours truly,
Truthfully, it’s a joke, like a bad episode of Hollyoaks,
Can’t keep up with the cover notes,
So they got bad credit livin’ on direct debit in debt
they still don’t get
Cause they too busy livin’ the high life, the night life
Huggin’ the high when livin’ it large
And they all say

[Florence]
Sometimes it seems that the going is just too rough
And things go wrong no matter what I do
Now and then it seems that life is just too much
But you’ve got the love I need to see me through

[Dizzee Rascal - Verse 2]
Let me take you down to London city
Where the attitude’s bad and the weather is shitty
Everybody’s on a paper chase
It’s one big rat race
Everybody’s got a screw face
So many 2 face,
Checkin their high just like their ready to ride
I’m on the inside looking at the outside
So it’s an accurate reflection
City wide, north, east, west and the southside
Everywhere I go there’s a goon on the corner
Guns and drugs cause the city’s like a sauna
And it’s getting warmer, and out of order
Tryna put a struggling mother to a mourner
Mr politician can you tell me the solution
What’s the answer, what’s the conclusion
Is it an illusion, is it a mirage
I see young’n’s die because they tryna live large
And they all say

[Florence]
Sometimes I feel like throwing my hands up in the air
I know I can count on all of you
Sometimes I feel like saying “Lord I just don’t care”
But you’ve got the love I need to see me through
(Check it, check it, come on, come on)

[Chorus]
You got the love
(Who’s got the love)
You got the love
(Who’s got the love)
You got the love
(That’s right, thats right, thats right)
You got the love
You got the love
You got the love

[Dizzee Rascal - Verse 3]
We are living in the days of the credit crunch
Give me the dough
I’m tryna have a bunch
But I cant have rice for lunch
Its not there ain’t enough to share
It ain’t fair never dreamed that he could be rare
Who cares who dares to make a change
Everybody in the club trying to make it rain
But not for famine just for the sake of having
15 minutes of fame and everywhere’s the same
Again and again I see the same thing
Everybody acting like they their plane sailin’
I see rough seas ahead maybe a recession
And then a depression in whatever professon
This is my confession I can’t front I’m in the forefront
Living for money ready to start like a bungee jump
With no rope but I ain’t trying to see the bottom
Because thats where I came from, I ain’t forgotten,
[Chorus]
[End]

Note: lyrics grabbed from KillerHipHop.

Unlearning

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I’ve never been a big fan of Donald Rumsfeld, but way back in 2002 he had a killer quote that expressed a great idea:

There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we do not know we don’t know.

I love this quote but have always been frustrated by it. The ex-consultant in me thinks “you’ve only described three quadrants of a 2×2 matrix!” After all, what is an “unknown known”?

Today, I got an inkling of what that might be.

I was catching up on reading some John Mauldin Frontline Thoughts and noticed this graph:

John’s hypothesis is that we’re at the end of 60 year debt supercycle (1950-2010; preceded by 1880-1933) and it’s going to be a vicious delevering that’s going to reshape the world.

The interesting point in the graph below is where the kink upwards started: 1980, just a couple of years after I was born. Moreover, the damn line’s been going up pretty much ever since I’ve started thinking about things more complex than what to do after the school day ended.

And this brings me back to the unknown known. If John is correct (and I think he is), then everything I know about the world is tinged with the fact that I learned it going through the biggest credit bubble anyone alive has seen. A lot of the ‘facts’ I learned growing up (you’ll always be wealthier than your parents, social programs can be paid for, etc.) are going to be challenged over the next 30 years and I’m going to have to unlearn what I knew. My pattern recognition is going to be skewed because it was trained on a pretty crappy underlying dataset.

It won’t be easy, but now I think I finally know what a unknown known might be…

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