Dec 19
lindsayrgwattHistory, NYC
Today I went to an exhibition at the Met called Art of the Samurai: Japanese Arms and Armor, 1156-1868. It has given me a new appreciation for how absolutely insane Japanese culture is. First, let’s take a look at some of the different helmets that Samurai might wear into battle:
If you were to ask “Lindsay, isn’t one of those helmets done up to look like a swallow’s tail? And is the other one a set of crabs claws?” you’d be absolutely correct. Apparently the Samurai helmet was the early equivalent of taking your shoe off and banging it on your desk at the UN – an attempt to intimidate your enemy by convincing them that you were crazier than they were.
Their armor certainly suggests that. Granted, to a jaded 21st century dweller, it looks like the sort of costume a psychopathic midget who worships the Village People might wear (the armor dates back to the Middle Ages and the Japanese were quite short back then), but I can only imagine how exceptionally nutty it would look when combined with a very sharp sword.
If you look closely at the images below you’ll notice a few things. First, everyone’s wearing a mask to look a little crazier – although the mustaches undermine it. Second, the guy with brown hair actually does have hair coming out of his helmet-there’s some sort of animal pelt there; a different set of armor (not shown) actually had long, flow, dyed red hair attached to it. Finally, the red outfit suggests where Darth Vader comes from.
Go to the exhibition if you get the chance!
Dec 17
lindsayrgwattNYC NYC, statistics, UncoverYourCity
If you follow this blog, you’ll know that we launched UncoverYourCity to help people better understand New York. Here’s another example of interesting things we can learn about the city by playing with the data.
Let’s say you wanted to see the relationship between people renting and their household income. A few things emerge here: if you’re, on average, poor, you rent. If you’re rich, you buy. The poorest Districts of New York are in the southern Bronx and a shocking 92% of people rent; just up the Harlem River, 94% of people in Morris Heights rent. The average family income here is around $17-22K per year.
The converse is also in the south: in southern Staten Island, 85% of people own and the household income hovers near $83K. Here’s a comparison of all the districts side by side.
However, if you look at the plot of household income vs. rental rates you’ll notice a bunch of outliers in the upper right corner:
These are a couple of districts towards the tip of Manhattan (districts 1, 2, and 4-8) plus district 6 in Brooklyn (Cobble Hill, Carroll Gardens, Park Slope).
What’s going on here? Well, if you asked me to pick the areas in New York where people who are passing through (i.e., getting experience before they move to a different city or start a family in the suburbs) live, I would pick these neighborhoods. These are places where younger professionals move to get experience yet maintain a high quality of life (yes, there are lots of people there who are neither young nor professional, but we’re talking ‘on average’ here) and this may be why we see this litter cluster of outliers.
What’s interesting is what’s not in the set of outliers: Williamsburg (Brooklyn District 1) and the Lower East Side (Manhattan District 3). My bet is that these neighborhoods are both subsumed by the averages of their districts and their more bohemian younger residents may have a lower average family income.
This data doesn’t tell the whole story, but it does help us understand the city a bit better. More fun examples in future posts.
Dec 16
lindsayrgwattNYC, Technology Gov2.0, NYC Big Apps, UncoverYourCity
So last week, Wendy, Jill and I unveiled UncoverYourCity. This is a site that we put together as part of the NYC Big Apps competition (you can vote for us here; you’ll need to create an account). We want to share a bit of background on what the project is and why we did it.
Why?
There’s a nascent movement called Government 2.0 which seeks to apply the principles of the web to government and make it more open and efficient. One of the first steps in governments becoming open is making their data available online for any citizens who want to use it. The government has some of the most interesting data out there – everything from demographic info to build permit locations to school scores – and they’ve got more information than just about anyone else.
This movement has gained a lot of traction at the municipal level and San Francisco, Vancouver, Toronto and New York are some early cities to start putting municipal data online. New York has gone a step further by creating the Big Apps competition to get people to showcase what could be done with the data. We decided that we wanted to create an app to support the the city and also learn what could be done with the data.
So What Is It?
We wanted to create an app that would compare the quality of life in different New York neighborhoods and help people find the neighborhood that was perfect for them. If you know this city, you know that there are 8 million people that exhibit remarkable diversity. It’s what makes the city magical but also makes it hard to grasp. We wanted a tool to help people grasp it.
However, we quickly realized that this was way too hard to do (more on that in a future post) and that we weren’t comfortable placing a “quality of life” ranking on different areas. Instead, we decided that the right thing to create was an app that would let people learn more about the neighborhoods they live in and compare them with others.
The result is UncoverYourCity. We’ve combined almost a dozen different data sets (sounds easy, but it’s not) so that people can see how their neighborhood squares with others. You can use it to discover the leafiest streets in NYC, compare the neighborhoods with the highest and lowest murder rates (bet you don’t guess either one) or see interesting relationships like that between poverty and renting.
This isn’t a gimmick, rather, we believe it’s got the potential to help you see the challenges facing the city in a new way. Take the Mayor’s plan for making the city greener. I’ve no idea how the city is thinking of making the city greener, but one hypothesis might be that if we increase population density we might be able to increase recycling rates (if you live in condos, etc. they usually have recycling designed into the building). However, our stats suggest that there’s no relationship between recycling and population density:
However, there’s a pretty strong relationship between education levels (% population holding bachelor’s/graduate degree) and recycling rates (graph below). This suggests that making the city greener may need to include elements to improve education. It’s a similar story if you compare recycling rates with medium household income or poverty rates.
The tool can also show us outliers that may represent opportunities to learn new approaches to apply elsewhere in city. One of my favorites is the relationship between Median Household Income and Family Poverty. There’s a big outlier in the bottom left of the graph: Brooklyn Community 13 – if it was like other districts, based on its income it should have a poverty rate of about 28% but instead its holding out at 18%.
Is this due to the housing projects of Coney Island working as planned? Maybe it’s the tight Russian community of Brighton Beach taking care of their own and making sure that everyone’s doing okay. Or maybe Sea Gate’s population is so affluent that it skews the poverty level down. I don’t know, but if I were trying to reduce poverty in the city I’d try to find out.
So give the app a try. It’s not perfect – the site’s a bit slow (we’re not great programmers) and the navigation can be awkward (we ran out of time to get it polished) – but there’s something there for everyone. If you want to learn more about how we built it and why the Gov 2.0 movement is important, stay tuned to this blog (we’re also open sourcing all the code; stay tuned for links to code and data). And, when you’ve got a moment free, vote for us.
Dec 13
lindsayrgwattScience energy, genetics, technology review
I was reading the most recent issue of Technology Review and two things popped out at me. The first, was the difference in energy density (measured in MJ/kg) between gasoline, ethanol and batteries:
This, in a nutshell, highlights the reason why you don’t see very many electric cars on the road today. They either weigh the same as gasoline cars (and are therefore underpowered) or are full of batteries galore (and therefore cost a lot more). It’s going to be very interesting to watch this statistic change over time.
The other was about what Japanese researchers have been doing with Marmosets:
This spring, news of a biological breakthrough arrived in the form of baby marmosets whose feet glowed green under ultraviolet light. Researchers at the Central Institute for Experimental Animals in Kawasaki, Japan, had genetically engineered the monkeys to incorporate a gene, derived from jellyfish, that produces green fluorescent protein. It was the first time scientists had added a gene to a primate in such a way that a new trait could be passed to a second generation.
This is unreal news. If this turns out to be scalable and applicable to humans (both very big ‘ifs’), we could be looking at a future where it will be possible to speed up evolution. You could now pick and choose the best traits from anywhere and attempt to graft them into a human genome and see the results enter the global human gene pool immediately. (I’m not recommending any of this, rather it’s important to realize how fast this technology is evolving and what it’s implications are)
Dec 12
lindsayrgwattTechnology algorithms, facebook, fail
Wow, I haven’t even been married six months and Facebook already thinks that I’ve got marriage issues. I’d like to think that my marriage is going really well. In fact, I thought that the day we spent today, traipsing around town, was some of the most fun in ages.
But Facebook apparently thinks otherwise. In fact, when I logged in tonight, it invited me to reconnect with Wendy Franks, my wife:
Apparently, their algorithms have determined that we’re drifting apart and need to ‘reconnect’. I guess Wendy keeping me in her profile photo is just a charade (and a particularly cruel one, given that it’s one of our wedding photos) – but Facebook knows better. In fact, it’s completely unimaginable that the reason that I don’t write on her wall could be the fact that I live with her and spend more time with her than anyone else on earth, right?
Time to tweak the algorithms folks.
Nov 09
lindsayrgwattNYC google, maps, mta, subway
Last week Google added subway lines to the list of items that it shows in Google Maps for NYC. What’s neat about this is that we can now plot where the subway lines are in the real world vs. where they appear on the MTA subway map:
A couple of themes emerge:
- Manhattan is ridiculously oversized in the MTA version. Note how much smaller it should be
- If you live in East Brooklyn or the entire borough of Queens you’re pretty much out of luck when it comes to subway transport
- It is ridiculous how far the subway lines are from both JFK and LaGuardia
Nov 08
lindsayrgwattBusiness, Finance
I either didn’t exist, or was way to young to remember it, but the ‘7os were tough economic times. The reason: inflation. Prices were quickly going up, and when this happens faster than the economy grows, your standard of living drops. Here are some quick charts from the Berkeley Econ dep’t:
It took Paul Volcker raising interest rates to absurdly high levels in the early 1980’s – and thereby bringing the economy to a standstill – to tame inflation. This had a profound effect on society: the Fed send a clear signal that they would not tolerate a rapid increase in the prices of goods and services. If such a rise occurs, then they raise interest rates, even if it risks putting the economy into recession.
This has held true to today and as a result, we haven’t had any serious (excluding gasoline) increases in the prices of goods and services since 1981 or so. As a result, this type of inflation hasn’t caused this recession or any since the early 1980’s-and that’s a great thing.
However, notice that I’m being very specific in my choice of words: I’m defining inflation as the increase in the price of goods and services. Recently we’ve had all sorts of recessions caused by other types of inflation: the Tech Bubble of ‘99/00, the Oil Shock of ‘07/08 and the Housing Bubble. In fact, some folks believe that we’re seeing a bunch of other bubbles right now: Chinese property market, U.S. equities, and on and on and on.
So here’s the hypothesis: since the Fed is so tightly monitoring the prices of goods and services – because that’s how they define inflation – they’ve pushed ‘inflation’ into other markets. If you were to look at other prices and define ‘inflation’ as occurring when they rise too rapidly, you’d think to yourself “holy crap, we’ve got an inflation problem.”
There are some hints that people are starting to think this way. A recent New Yorker article on Larry Summers contained the following:
In 2007, Summers started looking at the looming economic crisis. Back in 2003, he had attended a Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in which economists were celebrating the fact that central bankers seemed to have mastered the use of monetary policy to tame inflation without causing the economy to slip into a recession, as had happened in the past. Summers warned that perhaps the victory over inflation meant only that the next recession would be caused by some new phenomenon.
And in a recent investment email, David Einhorn talked about asset price inflation:
Further, the Federal Open Market Committee members may not recognize inflation when they see it, as looking at inflation solely through the prices of goods and services, while ignoring asset inflation, can lead to a repeat of the last policy error of holding rates too low for too long.
This is a really tricky problem to solve. Taming inflation is straightforward: you just tell the public that you want inflation to be between 0.5-2% and then raise interest rates any time it looks like it might be higher. The public pretty quickly learns that you mean business and don’t misbehave.
But trying to prevent bubbles is a crazy hard problem. You can’t say something like “asset prices can’t increase more than 10% a year” because nobody is going to agree to that. There are legitimate times when a category of asset prices could increase way faster than that and it would require unprecedented (and unacceptable) government intervention to avoid it.
Instead, the challenge to the Fed has to abstract the problem and understand how to create a set of incentives to get people to behave properly. This is a really hard problem as first, everyone has to agree on what causes the problem (almost impossible as people who are making quick money have an incentive to disagree) and then Congress, etc. have to be convinced to actually implement regulation.
It’s going to be fascinating to see if the Fed and the Obama administration rise to the occasion and try to solve this problem. As the Chinese apocryphally said: “may you live in interesting times.”
Nov 07
lindsayrgwattRandom at&t
Last week daylight savings time began. One of the small pleasures of the 21st century is that you never have to worry about getting up an hour too early/late on these days because you can use your cellphone as your alarm clock. Their clocks update automatically, so you’ve effectively outsourced the problem to them.
However, it’s interesting to see that their systems don’t always work. Last week I missed a call and when I checked my voicemail, the message was from the future (Just another example of AT&T’s network failing!):
Nov 02
lindsayrgwattNYC
Here are a bunch of random thoughts/comments from yesterday’s marathon:
- As we were waiting for the race to start on Staten Island, we couldn’t help but notice the sniper on roof of one of the buildings. And it was definitely a sniper as he was defiantly placing his rifle on the ledge so that anyone could see it
- Tonnes of people showed up late for the race and therefore had to jump fences to get into the corrals we were held in before the start. Imagine training for four months and then blowing the race because you couldn’t be bothered to get to the race on time?
- The start was sudden: a message from the Mayor, race instructions and then the howitzers (race starts at Fort Wadsworth) went off, followed by us! Immediately, New York, New York began playing; a great way to start a race
- Running across the Verrazano Bridge gives you one of the best views of the city you’ll ever get. I suspect it might be the highest point in the entire city. It’s also the only bridge in NYC you can’t walk over so it’s a treat to run on. While we were running over it we were also being buzzed by at least four choppers: at one point one was above us while another was moving beside us; I almost caught the glare off the camera. I also noticed two massive Chinook helicopters headed towards us, coming in low over the harbour, but the broke away at the last moment and turned to Staten Island
- When we hit Bay Ridge (just across the bridge), the cheering began. At the first fluid station, some cheeky future entrepreneur was offering Gatorade for $0.25 (in case you’re wondering, it’s free; every mile from mile 3 onwards)
- Along the way there are lots of bands/djs. You can tell a neighbourhood’s character from the music: Bay Ridge = classic rock, Sunset Park thumps to a Hispanic beat while Harlem and the Bronx are a little more hip hop
- Fort Greene was the best neighbourhood. For the first few miles, the runners are split into three, then two groups. They come together near Fort Greene, so for a mile or so it gets quite intimate. The street, Lafayette St., narrows at this point and at the same time Fort Greene has some locals who really like to cheer. It was best summed up by the guy next to me who turned to me and exclaimed “This is fucking amazing!”
- Shortly after, we hit Williamsburg. After an inspiring run past a church with a gospel choir outside, the neighbourhood became incredibly quiet. The neighbourhood is bifurcated by the bridge and to the south it is all Hasidic Jews (it’s literally like running through Once Upon A Time In America). They don’t really cheer for marathoners too much. To the north is hipsterville and there you’ll find bands and people eating brunch while cheering you on
- When we passed the halfway mark I let out a cheer, but unfortunately I was surrounded by Europeans who didn’t seem too excited. In fact, in general, the Euros weren’t too friendly. No idea why
- Crossing the Queensboro Bridge from Queens into Manhattan was a little surreal. We were running on the lower level, so it was a bit like being in a sooty tunnel. As we ran, the trains were running beside us and I think they were going slower so that the passengers could gawk at us. I also noticed that when we got to the middle of the bridge they hadn’t yet cleaned up the bottles of the lead runners (these guys actually set up their own water bottles at spots on the course) and they were still lying on the course
- I’d heard that when you come off the bridge and hear the crowd it’s unbelievable…and it was. The roar started with a few hundred meters to go and then suddenly a crowd appeared. Their cheers became a roar and every runner picked up their speed; the cheers continued up 1st Ave
- At 81st street or so I saw another set of cops on a roof watching the crowd
- Somewhere between 90th and 100th, there was a DJ cranking Empire State of Mind. Hearing Alicia Keys sing “Let’s hear it for New York” was sonic adrenalin and made me accelerate
- As I swung back into Manhattan from the Bronx, I saw my coworker Jorgette on the corner of 137th. Very cool to see someone I recognized
- With about five kilometers to go I felt my hamstring start to twinge and new that there was no way I was going to make my goal time of 3:20. In fact, I’d been dropping time since coming hitting kilometer 30. Next year I’ll have to run longer long runs
- After the race, I got stuck next to this guy on the subway:
Before he fell to the left, he was leaning left on me:
We made a great team. I’m pretty sure I smelled because at least one person moved away from me after sitting down next to me- Finally, Timex gave out the best swag: a fridge magnet where you could put your time. Here’s mine:
Oct 31
lindsayrgwattNYC drum and bass, ltj bukem, mc conrad, Music
Last night Rich and I went to see LTJ Bukem and MC Conrad at Club Love. It’s one of my favourite places to see a dj in NYC – a bit dive-y, great sound system and a totally unpretentious crowd:
The other great thing about Love is there light show. They’ve got human-powered lasers: a woman literally fires a laser through a set of prisms to create the visual effect she wants. Definitely a job that I never would have guessed existed:
Here are a couple more snaps:
Older Entries Newer Entries
RSS
Recent Comments